市況研究社日報

アウトルックフォーラム

「市況研究社日報」(穀物) 2018年2月26日(月)

米農務省の見通しでは、2018/2019市場年度も<現状の継続>の可能性が高い。まず、わかりやすく数字から入力し、<米農務省のコメント>はページ下に掲載します。

米国の作付面積

        2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018
小麦     5530万 5620万 5680万 5500万 5010万 4600万 4650万
トウモロコシ 9730万 9540万 9060万 8800万 9400万 9020万 9000万
大豆     7720万 7680万 8330万 8270万 8340万 9010万 9000万

米国小麦の需給見通し

                       推定     見通し
市場年度     2015/16    2016/17    2017/18    2018/19
作付面積     5500万    5010万    4600万    4650万
収穫面積     4730万    4390万    3760万    3880万
反収(bu./ac.)   43.6     52.7     46.3     47.4
期初在庫    7億5200万   9億7600万  11億8100万  10億0900万
生産高    20億6200万  23億0900万  17億4100万  18億3900万
輸入      1億1300万   1億1800万   1億5500万   1億3500万
総供給量   29億2700万  34億0200万  30億7600万  29億8300万
飼料消費    1億4900万   1億5600万   1億0000万   1億1000万
食糧/種子   10億2400万  10億1000万  10億1700万  10億1700万
米国内消費  11億7400万  11億6700万  11億1700万  11億2700万
輸出      7億7800万  10億5500万   9億5000万   9億2500万
総消費量   19億5100万  22億2200万  20億6700万  20億5200万
期末在庫    9億7600万  11億8100万  10億0900万   9億3100万
在庫/消費     50.0%    53.2%    48.8%    45.2%
米農家手取り  $4.89/bu.   $3.89/bu.   $4.60/bu.   $4.70/bu.

米国トウモロコシの需給見通し

                       推定     見通し
市場年度     2015/16    2016/17    2017/18    2018/19
作付面積     8800万    9400万    9020万    9000万
収穫面積     8080万    8670万    8270万    8270万
反収(bu./ac.)  168.4     174.6     176.6     174.0
期初在庫   17億3100万  17億3700万  22億9300万  23億5200万
生産高    136億0200万  151億4800万  146億0400万  143億9000万
輸入       6800万    5700万    5000万    5000万
総供給量   154億0100万  169億4200万  169億4700万  167億9200万
飼料消費   51億1400万  54億6700万  55億5000万  54億7500万
エタノール  52億2400万  54億3900万  55億2500万  56億5000万
その他FSI   14億2400万  14億5000万  14億7000万  14億9500万
米国内消費  117億6300万  123億5600万  125億4500万  126億2000万
輸出     19億0100万  22億9300万  20億5000万  19億0000万
総消費量   136億6400万  146億4900万  145億9500万  145億2000万
期末在庫   17億3700万  22億9300万  23億5200万  22億7200万
在庫/消費     12.7%    15.7%    16.1%    15.6%
米農家手取り  $3.61/bu.   $3.36/bu.   $3.30/bu.   $3.40/bu.

米国大豆の需給見通し

                       推定     見通し
市場年度     2015/16    2016/17    2017/18    2018/19
作付面積     8270万    8340万    9010万    9000万
収穫面積     8170万    8270万    8950万    8910万
反収(bu./ac.)   48.0     52.0     49.1     48.5
期初在庫    1億9100万   1億9700万   3億0200万   5億3000万
生産高    39億2600万  42億9600万  43億9200万  43億2000万
輸入       2400万    2200万    2500万    2500万
総供給量   41億4000万  45億1500万  47億1800万  48億7500万
圧搾(搾油) 18億8600万  18億9900万  19億5000万  19億8000万
種子/他    1億1500万   1億4100万   1億3900万   1億3500万
米国内消費  20億0200万  20億4000万  20億8800万  21億1500万
輸出     19億4200万  21億7400万  21億0000万  23億0000万
総消費量   39億4400万  42億1300万  41億8800万  44億1500万
期末在庫    1億9700万   3億0200万   5億3000万   4億6000万
在庫/消費     5.0%     7.2%    12.7%    10.4%
米農家手取り  $8.95/bu.   $9.47/bu.   $9.30/bu.   $9.25/bu.

Planted Acreage Outlook for 2018

The 2018 outlook for U.S. plantings of corn and soybeans is driven by price prospects similar to a year ago. In contrast, spring wheat price prospects are up from last year while farmers have indicated winter wheat acres will be down fractionally from last year, but with notable increases in states such as Texas and Kansas. The forecast planted area for the 3 crops at 226.5 million acres, plus an assumption for a normal amount of prevented plant area, suggest a modest rise in combined area in 2018. Prevented plant acres for the 3 crops totaled about 2 million acres in 2017, below the recent historical average for the second consecutive year.

Wheat planted area for 2018 is projected up 0.5 million acres to 46.5 million. Winter wheat seeded area in the January 12, 2018, NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report was 32.6 million acres, down fractionally from last year mostly resulting from a drop in Hard Red Winter (HRW), which was estimated down 0.3 million acres to 23.1 million. Soft Red Winter (SRW) area was estimated up 0.2 million acres to 6.0 million. Winter White (WW) seedings were raised fractionally to 3.6 million. Spring wheat (including Durum) plantings are expected to increase 4 percent.

Corn plantings for 2018 are projected at 90.0 million acres, down slightly from last year and virtually unchanged from 2017’s intended plantings. Soybean plantings are expected to total 90.0 million acres, fractionally below a year ago but up 0.5 million from last year’s intentions. Combined corn and soybean area, at 180.0 million acres, is down slightly from a last year’s record high of 180.3 million but 0.5 million above 2017 planting intentions. Forecast increases in wheat and cotton acres, as well as a normal amount of prevented plant acres, are expected to limit expansion in combined corn and soybean area following an increase of 9.6 million acres over the past 2 years.

Futures and new crop cash prices for corn and soybeans in both absolute and relative terms are similar to this time a year ago. Through more than half of February, new crop corn futures averaged just under $4.00 per bushel. Soybean prices over the same time period have averaged just over $10.00 per bushel, 2.6 times the corn price and virtually unchanged from a year ago. Forward pricing opportunities for producers portend a similar outlook, with February cash bids for fall 2018 delivery at Illinois elevators2 averaging about $3.60 for corn and $9.65 per bushel for soybeans, compared to $3.65 and $9.85, respectively, during all of February a year ago. Absent any other considerations, current soybean prices relative to corn would be expected to support a continued expansion in soybean acres. However, corn acres are expected to receive some support from lower input prices3 in 2018, as illustrated in Figure 2. Relative to the price of corn, prices for nitrogen fertilizer have declined modestly. For producers focused on managing costs in a relatively low price environment, this is expected to enhance potential net returns. In addition, the potential for a sharp increase in soybean area is dampened by rotational constraints with the possibility of yield drag and increased disease and pest pressure from planting soybeans-on-soybeans. Expected increases in planted acres for other crops will also likely limit soybean area expansion.

Corn Supply, Demand, and Price Outlook for 2018/19

Corn Supplies: Corn production in 2018 is projected at 14,390 million bushels, 1 percent below a year ago on fractionally lower planted area and a return to trend yield. Corn supplies for 2018/19 decline from the record high in 2017/18, but remain relatively large. Imports are expected to be unchanged from a year ago reflecting expectations of continued demand for imported organic corn and trade destined for southeastern feed markets. The national average corn yield is projected at 174.0 bushels per acre, below last year’s record yield of 176.6 bushels. The yield projection is based on a weatheradjusted trend assuming normal growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2017 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation.

Corn Use: Total corn use for 2018/19 at 14,520 million bushels is down from 2017/18 as a projected decline in exports more than offsets growth in domestic use.

Corn Feed and Residual Use: Corn feed and residual use for 2018/19 is projected at 5,475 million bushels, down 75 million bushels from 2017/18. The decline reflects smaller residual disappearance with a reduced crop, an increase in the amount of corn used to produce ethanol, and slightly higher expected prices that are partially offset by expected growth in grain consuming animal units.

Corn Food, Seed, and Industrial Use: Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 2018/19 is projected at a record 7,145 million bushels, 150 million bushels higher than 2017/18. Non-ethanol FSI categories are up 25 million bushels in 2018/19 largely reflecting higher corn use for glucose and dextrose. Corn use for beverage and industrial alcohols, as well as use for food, cereals, and other products continue an upward trend mostly based on population growth.

Corn Used in Ethanol Production: Corn used for ethanol production is projected at a record 5,650 million bushels for 2018/19, 125 million bushels higher than 2017/18. If realized, this would represent nearly 40 percent of total corn use, a marginal increase from the previous year but below the average of 2011/12 and 2012/13. The Energy Information Administration forecast for gasoline consumption during 2018/19, on a September-August basis, is up about 1 percent from the prior year. Continued low gasoline prices and economic growth support a slight but steady increase in vehicle a miles driven per day and continued consumer purchases of heavier, relatively less fuel efficient vehicles. At the same time, continued growth is expected for U.S. ethanol exports.

Corn Exports: Corn exports for 2018/19 are projected at 1,900 million bushels, down 150 million from the 2017/18 forecast. Competition from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine is expected to limit U.S. export prospects. Argentina is forecast to increase its exports despite the impact of below trend yields in 2017/18 as corn area has expanded substantially in the last 2 years. Planting is underway for Brazil’s second-crop corn and this crop would be expected to compete with U.S. exports starting in the summer of 2018. At the same time, with normal weather conditions Ukraine is expected to continue export expansion to countries in Asia, dampening prospects for the United States in the region. The U.S. market share of global trade is expected to remain in a range of 30 to 35 percent.

Corn Ending Stocks and Farm Prices: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected at 2,272 million bushels, down 3 percent from 2017/18. The 2018/19 stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6 percent is down from the 16.1 percent forecast for 2017/18, supporting a 10 cent per bushel increase from a year ago in the expected season-average farm price to $3.40 per bushel.

Soybean Supply, Demand, and Price Outlook for 2018/19

Soybean Supplies: Soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a record 4,875 million bushels, up 3 percent from 2017/18 with higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production. Soybean production is projected at 4,320 million bushels, 2 percent below last year on fractionally lower planted area and trend yields. The national average soybean yield of 48.5 bushels per acre is 0.6 bushels below last year and 3.5 bushels below the 2016 record. The yield forecast is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2017 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to precipitation.

Soybean Domestic Use: Soybean domestic use is projected up 1 percent in 2018/19 to 2,115 million bushels. Crush is seen increasing by 30 million bushels to 1,980 million with an expansion in domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean crush margins are forecast to be supported in 2018/19 by a slight decline in soybean prices while prices for soybean meal and soybean oil remain steady. Domestic use of soybean meal is projected to rise by 1.2 percent in 2018/19 to 34.7 million short tons due to gains for pork and poultry production. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $320 per short ton.

Domestic use of soybean oil is projected up 1.2 percent for 2018/19 to 21.35 billion pounds based on gains for edible and biodiesel consumption. A marginal increase for U.S. biodiesel production is forecast to raise that industry’s consumption of soybean oil to 7.6 billion pounds, compared to 7.5 billion for 2017/18. Edible consumption of soybean oil is projected to increase 150 million pounds to 13.75 billion. Increasing supplies of alternative vegetable oils could temper the growth in domestic soybean oil use.

Soybean oil ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected up nearly 3 percent to 1.576 billion pounds as gains in production slightly exceed the increase in use. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 32.5 cents per pound, unchanged from the 2017/18.

Soybean Exports: U.S. 2018/19 soybean exports are projected at 2,300 million bushels, up 200 million from the 2017/18 forecast. Rising global demand, along with a decline in the 2018 South American harvest, is expected to ease competitive pressures that contributed to this year’s lower projected exports. The U.S. global export share is forecast to rise slightly, although a rebound for 2019 production in South America will support additional exports from the region. Global trade will continue to be driven by China, which currently accounts for nearly two-thirds of world trade. Although the year-to-year increase for China’s soybean imports is expected to remain below the 5-year average on a percentage basis, imports are expected to exceed 100 million tons for the first time. Continued demand growth in the rest of Asia and in the Middle East and North Africa region will provide additional support for a rise in global imports.

Global soybean meal trade is also forecast to expand in 2018/19. Limited export growth from Argentina, other South America, and India is forecast to provide export opportunities for U.S. processors. As a result, U.S. soybean meal exports in 2018/19 are projected to increase to 12.4 million short tons.

U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to decline modestly in 2018/19 to 1.8 billion pounds as supply gains are mostly offset by higher domestic use. Strong competition from other oils will also likely curtail global demand for U.S. soybean oil exports.

Soybean Ending Stocks and Farm Prices: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected at 460 million bushels, down 70 million from 2017/18. With a smaller harvest and a 5-percent increase in total soybean disappearance, the ending stocks-to-use ratio would be 10.4 percent, down from 12.7 percent in 2017/18. With record soybean supplies and relatively high ending stocks, the soybean season-average farm price is projected at $9.25 per bushel, slightly below 2017/18.

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