市況研究社日報

収穫ロス

「市況研究社日報」(穀物) 2018年10月29日(月)

イリノイ・ファームビューロの「クロップウォッチャーズ」のリポートを読んでいて思ったことは、10月第2週(10/8~10/14)に降雨が続いて収穫が中断し、その後、大豆の収穫に注力しているあいだに、強風などでトウモロコシが倒伏する箇所があり、一部で収穫ロスが発生しているのではないかということです。

私自身は農家でないので、収穫ロス(あるいは反収ロス)について、具体的なイメージとして、実感をともなう認識ができません。イリノイ・ファームビューロのリポートを読んでも「こういうことではないのかナ」と推測するレベルです。

ただ、強風などで収穫前のトウモロコシが倒伏した場合、その倒れ方によっては収穫機の刈り取りと脱穀がうまくいかなくなり、反収ロスが発生することはわかる。そして、米国農家は現在の価格に不満があるので、収穫ロスのパーセンテージを主張したい気になると思います。現在の市場には、そういう雰囲気があり、CBOT先物のファンドが買いに回っている可能性が高い。

当社「日報」では9月19日以降、今日に至るシカゴ(CBOT)先物の戻りについて、主として、CBOT先物の<内部要因主導の戻り>と説明してきました。CBOT先物のファンド勢は期近12月限の売り玉を買い戻し、12月限の建玉を整理しながら、2019年3月限などを買って乗り換えている。10月の収穫ロス(反収ロス)は、そうしたファンドの買いの思惑を助長していると思います。

当社の立場と意見

シカゴ(CBOT)先物のファンド勢の建玉整理と乗り換えも、収穫前の倒伏による「収穫ロス」も、それによって次のあたらしいトレンドが始まるものではない。目の前の印象を過大評価することによって中長期的なトレンドを無視することは間違っていると思います。

当社「日報」は、CBOT先物の買いの思惑には迎合しません。9月19日以降の戻りが一巡するのを待ちます。南米ブラジルの天候に問題がなければ、戻りを買う要素はないと考えています。必要な手配は進捗させても、余計な思惑をいだくことはないと思います。海上運賃、為替と共に注目していくつもりです。

イリノイ・ファーム・ビューロの報告

週末のイリノイ生産者の報告です。

<イリノイ北部

Lake County
10/26/2018
Finally a great week in Lake County. About 90 percent of the beans are cut with yields in the upper 40s. This is much better than most expected. Some corn was cut. Pastures are looking great. Remember to be safe.

Boone County
10/26/2018
Boone County is within a day or two of completing bean harvest. I am very thankful for the benign weather the last 10 days to move through 70 percent of our corn harvest without further stalk deterioration. Corn is down to 16 percent moisture on very good production. Most of the cereal rye cover crop is in, and more than half is greening up. To sum it up, we can see the finish line. I made a mistake driving 200 miles south and seeing everyone else is already done.

DeKalb County
10/26/2018
Two words: Tar spot. Same field, different hybrids. One flat as a pancake, one straight as a board. A 100-bushel yield difference between them. So much brown dust you would think you were harvesting soybeans. Every corn grower should be learning all they can about this ravaging disease. If it weren't for the trade war I might plant all soybeans. Am I negative this week? Probably so, but it's like nothing I've ever seen. On a bright note, we finished our soybean harvest.

Lee County
10/26/2018
We wrapped up soybean harvest Tuesday and got back to corn Wednesday. It has been a nice stretch of harvest weather, but the forecast has more showers in the mix. One of our fields of corn broke over pretty badly while we were doing soybeans, but it's feeding into the combine OK. Others aren't so lucky. A lot of reels have been mounted on corn heads and even that doesn't solve the problem for some. A few fields are being harvested going one way and even at an angle to the rows.

Carroll County
10/26/2018
Good harvest weather allowed many soybeans to be cut, while others made progress on corn. Still 30 to 35 percent in the fields. We finished Saturday (Oct. 20) in 50 mph winds. More fields now have downed corn. Those fields are suffering great losses of 10 to 30 bushels per acre. Cornstalk bales are not yielding as many as we need, so we are looking for more. We attended a closeout sale of a large dairy farm, and it is so sad to lose another dairy herd.

<イリノイ西部

Mercer County
10/26/2018
Another good week of harvest weather. It wasn't so good if you needed to deliver to the river, though, as barge traffic was just beginning to move. Both river elevators were able to take some soybeans Friday, but normal operations will not be for a while yet. I finished soybeans Tuesday.

Warren County
10/26/2018
We did not receive any rain last week. That led to lots of soybeans being harvested. We finished beans Oct. 23 and jumped into the last 200 acres of corn. We should finish corn this week. The moisture on corn was down to 15 percent, and there was lots of shelling at the head. Harvest losses are much higher than normal. Some of the corn is lodged due to the high winds we had. Yields are still good, but we are losing 10 to 15 percent of that good yield. Anhydrous ammonia is being applied now with the soil temperatures below 50 degrees.

Adams County
10/26/2018
After dodging some rain showers and breakdowns, I am happy to report harvest is completed for the farm. There are some wheat beans left to cut, but I consider those to be the appendix to the yearly novel. Despite the lack of rain, yields were impressive for non-GMO crops. Other neighbors are also enjoying a completed harvest, and just a scant few are getting small patches here and there. Fall cover crops are getting seeded, but with the lack of warmth in the forecast, it's hard to see how they will turn out.

<イリノイ中央部

Stark County
10/26/2018
Other than a short day Friday (Oct. 19), we had great weather for a week. Saturday was the big wind day. It blew some more corn down. Monday made up for it -- a perfect October harvest day. Most of us cut beans every day. Many farmers have wrapped up harvest and are doing tillage, spreading fertilizer and limestone. I saw the first anhydrous ammonia being applied Tuesday. We finished soybeans Thursday. Lots of farmers will wrap this fall up next week, except for tillage.

Peoria County
10/26/2018
Harvest is wrapping up. Fall tillage and some nitrogen is being done. The countryside can sure change in a month. Overall, crops have been decent. Corn is below the last couple years' average, but soybeans have been as good or a bit better than the last couple years. I hope to have harvest wrapped up this week.

Livingston County
10/26/2018
Bean and cornfields that were left disappeared last week with the great weather. Fertilizer and lime is getting applied at a rapid rate. NH3 application is just starting with the below-normal temperatures. The corn market rose some only to fall back. Halloween and the World Series are here. So, you know fall is upon us.

McLean County
10/26/2018
Harvest has wound down to well under 10 percent of the crop left. Soil temperatures are in the mid-40's, so some anhydrous ammonia is being applied. Tillage, tiling projects, equipment cleanup and fertilizer spreads are being done. We'll take a couple of days off to see the "Grandmonsters." Corn, $3.30; January, $3.44; fall '19, $3.57; soybeans, $7.83; January, $8.01; fall '19, $8.57.

Menard County
10/26/2018
We have not finished, and it is starting to rain, so I will have something to write about next week! We finished beans, so the end is in sight. Corn and bean yields are still above average, and the county is pretty low on any standing crops. There is tillage going on, and I saw anhydrous tanks on the roads. Kyle broke the drill (luckily right after he finished planting the cover crops), the water pump is out on the 4020, and the 4440 looks to be headed the same way, so it looks like some good warm shop/cold weather projects. Good thing we are done with augers for a while. Looking for a little warm, dry weather to get the fall herbicide on once we get through the last of the corn.

Sangamon County
10/26/2018
We had a tremendous week of productivity. There's been fertilizer and lime put on, ground chiseled and a lot of cover crops planted. Very few fields are left. Overall, a pretty good year at this point in time. Looking forward to a little rain to get a break here during the weekend.

Macon County
10/26/2018
Drizzle Thursday evening and forecast into Friday morning may slow or halt field activities. Only a few acres of corn and soybeans remain to be harvested. The majority of the tillage has been done and starting to see anhydrous ammonia tanks rolling. Definitely going to see field activity completed well before Thanksgiving.

Shelby County
10/26/2018
No report

Fayette County
10/26/2018
Several farmers are beginning to wrap up harvest. The big deal for the week was chasing local elevators that were receiving grain. Several are full, and either waiting on trucks or railcars. A lot of fall tillage is going on, along with fertilizer and lime applications. Wheat stands seem to be excellent. As farmers begin to wind down with harvest and continue with fall tillage and cleanup of equipment, everyone be safe.

<イリノイ東部

Iroquois County
10/26/2018
No report

Champaign County
10/26/2018
We had another great week for fall work! The majority of harvest is wrapped up, but there are still a few scattered fields of corn and soybeans left standing. We experienced very strong winds Saturday throughout the county. Some cornfields took the wind fine, while other fields laid half to the entire field flat. Elevators have continued to fill up to their maximum capacity along with creating new ground piles that they have never had before. Many elevators are closed until they receive a train. Lime spreading and fertilizer application has been in full swing for a few weeks now. Tillage work is also further along this year compared to others.

Coles County
10/26/2018
No report

<イリノイ南東部

Jasper County
10/26/2018
Harvest progressed well until Thursday night when light rain fell, continuing into Friday morning. Several fields of beans are yet to be harvested -- mostly double-crop beans and replanted beans in the river bottom, which are still carrying quite a bit of moisture. A few widely scattered fields of corn remain to be harvested. Reported yields are very good. Wheat sowing continues. Spreading fertilizer and lime, and fall tillage continues wherever and whenever possible.

Wabash County
10/26/2018
We had a good week for harvest here in southeastern Illinois. Harvest is in its final stages. Many area farmers are done, but I will need another week or so to finish. My beans have been good. In fact, I have been as pleased with my bean yields as I have been disappointed with my corn yields.

<イリノイ南西部

Jersey County
10/26/2018
With harvest winding down, next year is upon us. A lot of activity with dry fertilizer and tillage going on. With the current conditions, most are waiting on fall applications of anhydrous and spraying, but some trial runs are occurring. A few damp days should allow everyone some time to gear up for the next round. Time to sit down and see how well everything performed.

St. Clair County
10/26/2018
Weather fronts brought light showers and a change of temperatures that interrupted harvest late last week. Gusty winds brought freezing temperatures that ended the growing season for the soybean crop and allowed the green stems of the plants to dry down. Farmers harvested soybeans throughout the week. Even the double-crop soybeans are ready to be harvested. A final cutting of hay was made during the dry period. Several fields of corn are scattered throughout the countryside and waiting to be harvested. Local grain bids were corn, $3.24; soybeans, $7.81; and wheat, $4.53. Have a safe week.

<イリノイ南部

Jackson County
10/26/2018
No report

Saline County
10/26/2018
As trick or treating gets close, the grain market just keeps tricking us that it can't move upward! Corn harvest is the same and beans are 75 to 80 percent complete. A few fields of emerging wheat look good. Had a good week harvesting, but light rain Friday.

Pulaski County
10/26/2018
We finished corn harvest Oct. 19 before we were rained out. We received 0.6 inches of rain later that day, which kept us out of the field until Monday. After a few good days, we are up to about 80 percent finished with soybeans. Although we had better weather for harvest last week, it seems there are still a lot of crops in the fields. Take time to have a safe week.

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